Arbeitsgruppe Klimakausalität

Philine Lou Bommer, Marlene Kretschmer, Anna Hedström, Dilyara Bareeva, and Marina M.-C. Höhne, Finding the right XAI Method — A Guide for the Evaluation and Ranking of Explainable AI Methods in Climate Science", Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, DOI:10.1175/AIES-D-23-0074.1

• Cohen, J.; Agel, L.; Barlow, M.; Furtado, J.; Kretschmer, M.; Wendt, V. , The “Polar Vortex” Winter of 2013/2014,  Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 2022. DOI: 10.1029/2022JD036493
• Karpechko, A.; Afargan-Gerstman, H.; Butler, A.; Domeisen, D.; Kretschmer, M.; Lawrence, Z.; Manizini, E.; Sigmond, M.; Simpson, I.; Wu, Z., Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere-Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 1. Inter-Model Spread and Scenario Sensitivity , JGR Atmospheres. 2022. DOI: 10.1029/2022JD036992
• Messori, G.; Kretschmer, M.; Lee, S.; Wendt, V., Stratospheric Downward Wave Reflection Events Modulate North American Weather Regimes and Cold Spells,  Weather Clim. Dynam. 2022. S. 1215-1236, DOI: 10.5194/wcd-3-1215-2022

• Kretschmer, M.; Adams, S.; Arribas, A.; Saggioro, E.; Prudden, R.; Robinson, N.; Shepherd, T., Quantifying causal teleconnection pathways (2021),  Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2020, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0117.1.

• Polkova, I.; Afargan-Gerstman, H.; Domeisen, D.; King, M.; Ruggieri, P.; Athanasiadis, P.; Dobrynin, M.; Aarnes, -.; Kretschmer, M.; Baehr, J., Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the Barents Sea, QJRMS. 2021, DOI: 10.1002/qj.4038.

• Kretschmer, M.; Politschouk, I.; Monnin, E., The role of the timing of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings for precipitation and temperature anomalies in Europe, International Journal of Climatology. 2021., DOI: 10.1002/joc.7426.

• Kretschmer, M.; Martin, M.; Boers, N.; Bunde, A.; Ciemer, C.; Fan, J.; Havlin, S.; Ludescher, J.; Kurths, J.; Runge, J.; Stolbova, V.; Surovyatkina, E.; Schellnhuber, H. J., Network-based forecasting of climate phenomena (2021) , Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2021, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1922872118.

• Kretschmer, M.; Zappa, G.; Shepherd, G.; Shepherd, T. G., The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes,  Weather and Climate Dynamics. 2020,  DOI: 10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020

• Di Capua, G.; Kretschmer, M.; Donner, R. V.; van den Hurk, B.; Vellore, R.; Krishnan, R.; Coumou, D., Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach, Earth System Dynamics. 2020, DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-17-2020

• Saggioro, E.; de Wiljes, J.; Kretschmer, M.; Runge, J., Reconstructing regime-dependent causal relationships from observational time series, Chaos. 2020, DOI: 10.1063/5.0020538

• Kretschmer, M.; Zappa, G.; Shepherd, G.; Shepherd, T. G. , The role of Barents–Kara sea ice loss in projected polar vortex changes, Weather and Climate Dynamics. 2020, DOI: 10.5194/wcd-1-715-2020.

• Di Capua, G.; Kretschmer, M.; Runge, J.; Alessandri, A.; Donner, R. V.; van den Hurk, B.; Vellore, R.; Krishnan, R.; Coumou, D., Long-Lead Statistical Forecasts of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Based on Causal Precursors, Weather and Forecasting. 2019, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-19-0002.1

• Runge, J.; Nowack, P.; Kretschmer, M.; Flaxman, S. R.; Sejdinovic, D., Detecting causal associations in large nonlinear time series datasets, Science Advances. 2019. 5 (11), DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aau4996.

• Runge, J.; Bathiany, S.; Bollt, E. et al., Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences, 2019. S. AR 2553, DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-10105-3.

• Kretschmer, M.; Coumou, D.; Agel, L.; Barlow, M.; Cohen, J.; Tziperman, E., More-Persistent Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex States Linked to Cold Extremes, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2018. S. 49-60, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1.
• Kretschmer, M.; Cohen, J.; Matthias, V.; Runge, J.; Coumou, D. , The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America,  npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2018, DOI: 10.1038/s41612-018-0054-4.

• Kretschmer, M.; Coumou, D.; Agel, L.; Barlow, M.; Cohen, J.; Tziperman, E., More-Persistent Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex States Linked to Cold Extremes, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 2018. S. 49-60, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0259.1.

• Kretschmer, M.; Cohen, J.; Matthias, V.; Runge, J.; Coumou, D,The different stratospheric influence on cold-extremes in Eurasia and North America

  npj Climate and Atmospheric Science. 2018., DOI: 10.1038/s41612-018-0054-4.

   

• Kretschmer, M.; Runge, J.; Coumou, D., Early prediction of extreme stratospheric polar vortex states based on causal precursors, Geophysical Research Letters. 2017,DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074696.

• Kretschmer, M.; Coumou, D.; Donges, J. F.; Runge, J., Using Causal Effect Networks to analyze different Arctic drivers of mid-latitude winter circulation,  Journal of Climate. 2016. S. 4069-4081, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1
• Kretschmer, M.; Coumou, D.; Donges, J. F.; Runge, J. ,Using Causal Effect Networks to analyze different Arctic drivers of mid-latitude winter circulation

  Journal of Climate. 2016. S. 4069-4081, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1